Signifikansi Kerapuhan Struktural bagi Keberlanjutan Ekonomi Indonesia: Bukti Nonlinear dari Deindustrialisasi, Sektor Informal, dan Pelarian Modal

Muhammad Akbar Ramadhani (Universitas Islam Negeri Sunan Kalijaga, Yogyakarta)

Jurnal Ekonomi
Vol. 31 No. 2 (2026): July-October 2026

The dynamics of Indonesia's economic development continue to be overshadowed by deindustrialization, informal sector dominance, and capital flight, which potentially hinder economic sustainability. This study examines the relationship between these three variables on Indonesia's economic sustainability using time-series data from 1991 to 2024 with a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach. The findings reveal that an increase in the manufacturing sector significantly boosts growth and stability in both the short and long run, while its decline reduces growth and stability with greater magnitude. An increase in the informal sector reduces growth and stability in the short run, while its decrease leads to only smaller and unstable growth. Capital flight permanently reduces growth and stability in both the short and long run, while capital reversal does not automatically restore economic growth.