Analisis Kelayakan Investasi Pabrik Bioethanol Dari Molase Tebu Berkapasitas 100.000 Kl/Tahun di Bojonegoro dan Sensitivitasnya Terhadap Perubahan Harga Bahan Baku dan Harga Jual Produk

Reksa Wijaya Martin (Sekolah Tinggi Teknologi Wastukancana, Purwakarta)
Dedy Setyo Oetomo (Sekolah Tinggi Teknologi Wastukancana, Purwakarta)
Asep Hermawan (Sekolah Tinggi Teknologi Wastukancana, Purwakarta)

Jurnal Teknik Industri Terintegrasi (JUTIN)
Vol. 9 No. 3 (2026): July

Indonesia's mandatory bioethanol-blending program faces a substantial domestic supply gap, with demand projected to grow from 478,358 KL in 2026 to 1,170,453 KL by 2040. This study examines the investment feasibility of establishing a 100,000 KL/year sugarcane-molasses bioethanol plant in Bojonegoro and its sensitivity to changes in raw-material and selling prices. A quantitative descriptive approach was applied using secondary data from BPS, ESDM, P3GI, and scientific literature. Financial feasibility was assessed through NPV, IRR, Payback Period, and BEP. The base-case scenario yields an IRR of 14.13% (MARR 10%), NPV of IDR 322.45 billion, and a 6-year payback period. Under a sensitivity scenario combining higher molasses prices and lower selling prices, IRR declines to 13% yet remains feasible, with NPV of IDR 70.98 billion and a BEP of 50,000 KL/year. The project is therefore feasible and reasonably resilient to market price fluctuations.