Trikonomika: Jurnal Ekonomi
Vol 25 No 1 (2026): June Edition

SIMULTANEOUS ANALYSIS OF INFLATION AND MONEY SUPPLY IN INDONESIA

Jolianis Jolianis (Universitas PGRI Sumatera Barat, Indonesia)
Fiko Farlis (Universitas Dharma Andalas, Indonesia)
Putri Sari (Universitas PGRI Sumatera Barat, Indonesia)
Dina Amaluis (Universitas PGRI Sumatera Barat, Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
23 Jun 2026

Abstract

This study investigates the structural relationship between inflation and money supply in Indonesia using a simultaneous equations framework. Specifically, it examines how money supply, interest rates, fuel prices, and government expenditure affect inflation, and how inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and household consumption affect money supply. Using annual data (1993–2024), a two-stage least squares (2SLS) model was applied. Results show inflation is jointly influenced by all tested variables, though only money supply and interest rates exert significant partial effects. Similarly, money supply is simultaneously affected by its four variables, but only inflation remains partially significant. These findings confirm a bidirectional relationship between inflation and money supply, supporting that monetary expansion drives inflationary pressures. The study highlights the value of simultaneous equation modeling for understanding macroeconomic interdependence and guiding reliable policy formulation.

Copyrights © 2026






Journal Info

Abbrev

trikonomika

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

FOCUS AND SCOPE Trikonomika invites academics and researchers who do original research in the fields of economics, management and accounting, including but not limited to: Development Economics Monetary Economics, Finance and Banking International Economics Public Economics Economic development ...