J Statistika : Jurnal Ilmiah Teori Dan Aplikasi Statistika
Vol 18 No 2 (2025): Jurnal Ilmiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika

A Dynamic Spatial Durbin Panel Model for Analyzing Poverty Rates in West Java Province




Article Info

Publish Date
31 Dec 2025

Abstract

Poverty is a complex socioeconomic issue influenced by various internal and external factors and remains a major concern in Indonesia. Based on data from the Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the national poverty rate in 2025 reached 8.57%, decreasing by 0.1% from the previous year. In West Java Province, although poverty shows a declining trend, it remains the second-highest in terms of the number of poor residents, totaling about 3.67 million people. This study analyzes the factors affecting poverty levels in West Java by considering spatial and temporal interregional effects. The data consist of the poverty percentages of districts and cities in West Java and their related variables from 2019 to 2024. The method used is a dynamic spatial panel regression model with a spatial durbin approach. The results reveal significant spatial and dynamic effects on poverty. GRDP per capita significantly influences poverty within a region, while the unemployment rate, GRDP per capita, and population growth rate in neighboring regions also have significant effects. The model explains 99.59% of the interregional variation in poverty. These findings highlight the importance of regional coordination and sustainable policies for poverty reduction, particularly through job creation, economic equity, and population growth control.

Copyrights © 2025






Journal Info

Abbrev

jstatistika

Publisher

Subject

Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

This journal publishes scientific articles in the form of research results, case studies, or literature reviews on various aspects related to the field of statistics, scientific data and their applications. Such as Computing, Time Series, Multivariate, Data Mining, Biostatistics, Survival Analysis, ...