Jurnal Polimesin
Vol 24, No 4 (2026): August

Sequential integration of optimized LSTM-RNN base-learners into a stacking ensemble for industrial PV output prediction

Nur Mutiara Syahrian (Politeknik Negeri Sriwijaya)
Tresna Dewi (Politeknik Negeri Sriwijaya)
Rusdianasari Rusdianasari (Politeknik Negeri Sriwijaya)



Article Info

Publish Date
29 Aug 2026

Abstract

Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is critical for managing solar intermittency, especially within industrial power systems. The objective of this study is to develop a high-precision forecasting framework specifically tuned for the stochastic weather patterns at the Pertamina RU III Sungai Gerong facility. This study proposes a two-stage deep learning framework utilizing a full year of historical operational data (June 2024-June 2025), totaling 2,795 samples, to ensure it captures a wide range of seasonal variations. The system optimized RNN and LSTM models as base learners which were then integrated by an MLP meta-learner through a Stacking Ensemble. The results demonstrate that a Tapered MLP (64-32) configuration performs best, minimizing the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) to 130.26 kWh and maximizing the R² index to 0.816. The Storm Simulation scenario was constructed using an interactive environment to replicate stochastic solar radiation drops exceeding 50% of peak capacity caused by sudden cloud movement. The results reveal that the ensemble model maintains a low error rate of 5.3%, outperforming standalone models which failed with errors up to 19.7%. These findings has a potential to support proactive load-shifting and synchronization in industrial-scale PV systems.

Copyrights © 2026






Journal Info

Abbrev

polimesin

Publisher

Subject

Automotive Engineering Control & Systems Engineering Engineering Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mechanical Engineering

Description

Polimesin mostly publishes studies in the core areas of mechanical engineering, such as energy conversion, machine and mechanism design, and manufacturing technology. As science and technology develop rapidly in combination with other disciplines such as electrical, Polimesin also adapts to new ...