<![CDATA[The European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) represents a significant policy development in global agricultural trade, particularly for commodity-exporting countries such as Indonesia, whose palm oil sector has strong economic linkages with the European Union market. This study examines the impact of EUDR on Indonesia’s palm oil exports to the European Union while considering other economic and policy-related determinants of export performance. A quantitative research approach was employed using annual time-series data covering the period from 2005 to 2024. A dummy variable regression model was utilized to estimate the potential effect of EUDR, while controlling for export levy policy (Tax PE), European Union gross domestic product (EU GDP), palm oil prices, and lagged export values. The results indicate that EUDR has no statistically significant short-term effect on Indonesia’s palm oil exports to the European Union, suggesting that the regulation had not generated a measurable disruption in export performance during the observation period. The export levy policy (Tax PE) also shows a statistically insignificant effect, indicating that domestic fiscal intervention does not substantially determine export outcomes in the short run. Conversely, palm oil prices and lagged export values demonstrate statistically significant effects, confirming the importance of international market conditions and export persistence in explaining export performance. These findings indicate that Indonesia’s palm oil exports remain more strongly influenced by market dynamics than by immediate regulatory intervention. Nevertheless, the potential long-term effects of EUDR warrant continued attention as implementation intensifies, traceability requirements expand, and compliance obligations become increasingly enforced across global palm oil supply chains.]]>
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