<![CDATA[This study examines the impact of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) on Indonesia’s palm oil exports to the European Union using a quantitative approach with time-series data from 2005 to 2024. A dummy regression model is employed to estimate the policy effect of EUDR while incorporating other key determinants, including export levy policy (Tax PE), European Union GDP, palm oil prices, and lagged export values. This integrated framework allows for a comprehensive assessment of both policy and market influences on export performance. The results show that the EUDR does not have a statistically significant short-term effect on Indonesia’s palm oil exports, indicating that the regulation has not yet produced a measurable impact during the study period. Similarly, the export levy policy (Tax PE) is found to be statistically insignificant, suggesting that domestic fiscal policy does not strongly influence export outcomes in the short run. In contrast, palm oil prices and lagged exports are statistically significant, highlighting the importance of global market conditions and export persistence in shaping export value. Overall, these findings suggest that Indonesia’s palm oil exports are primarily driven by market dynamics rather than immediate regulatory changes. However, the long-term impact of EUDR may become more evident as implementation strengthens and compliance requirements are fully enforced.]]>
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