Determinants of Indonesian Bank Profitability Across Pandemic and Non-Pandemic Periods

Nuuridha Matiin (Department of Management, STIE Nusantara Sangata, East Kalimantan)
Fatchur Rochman (Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics, Universitas Merdeka Madiun, East Java)
Mohammad Sofyan (Department of Management, Faculty of Economics, Universitas Merdeka Madiun, East Java)
Mochamad Ramza Rapier Gussa (Department of Digital Business, STMIK Kharisma Makassar)
Indah Purnama Sari Mardjuni (Department of Digital Business, STMIK Kharisma Makassar,)

Jurnal Manajemen
Vol. 30 No. 2 (2026): June-September 2026

Bank profitability is influenced by bank-specific conditions, macroeconomic changes, and economic disruptions. This study examines the short-run dynamic effects of credit distribution, operating expenses to operating income, capital adequacy, inflation, and the COVID-19 pandemic on return on assets in the Indonesian banking industry. Aggregate monthly commercial banking data were obtained from official publications of the Indonesian Financial Services Authority and Bank Indonesia. All available observations were included through total sampling. Stationarity was examined using the Augmented Dickey–Fuller test, followed by a stationary dynamic autoregressive distributed lag model with automatic lag selection based on the Akaike information criterion. Profitability exhibited persistence. Changes in credit distribution negatively affected profitability, while operating inefficiency produced a delayed negative effect. Changes in capital adequacy and inflation were insignificant. The pandemic dummy was negative but insignificant. Mixed stability evidence was identified, indicating that credit quality and operating efficiency were the principal short-run profitability considerations.