This study examines whether perceived tax audit effectiveness, tax auditor competence, and procedural clarity are associated with the certainty of resolving individual taxpayers' overpayment or refund cases. A quantitative cross-sectional survey was conducted among 40 individual taxpayers in Ogan Komering Ulu Timur Regency who held a taxpayer identification number and experienced an audit related to tax overpayment during 2022-2025. Fifteen Likert-scale items were analyzed using SPSS 25 through validity and reliability testing, residual diagnostics, multiple linear regression, partial t-tests, an overall F-test, and adjusted R². Audit effectiveness (B=.648, p<.001), auditor competence (B=.149, p=.002), and procedural clarity (B=.388, p=.003) were positively associated with refund resolution certainty. The model was jointly significant, F(3.36)=133.345, p<.001, with an adjusted R² of.911. Taxpayers report greater administrative certainty when audits are timely and effective, auditors are competent, and procedures are clear and transparent. The small purposive sample, self-reported single-source measures, the presence of respondents with tax-consulting expertise, and the high overlap between audit effectiveness and procedural clarity constrain generalization and may inflate model fit. Contribution: This study extends Indonesian tax-administration evidence by shifting attention from compliance outcomes to perceived certainty in the resolution of individual tax refund rights.
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