Scientific Journal of Informatics
Vol. 13 No. 3: August 2026

Automation of Sprint Cost Estimation in Agile Projects Using a Random Forest-Based Decision Support System

Faidatul Hikmah (Department of Information System, Telkom University, Indonesia)
Sinung Suakanto (Department of Information System, Telkom University, Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
29 Aug 2026

Abstract

Purpose: The manual construction of a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) is inherently susceptible to human cognitive biases; hence, the objective of this research shifts toward Intelligent Automation, leveraging a Decision Support System (DSS) to replicate expert financial logic. Methods: The dataset comprises 30 validated sprint records from 23 internal projects; other WBS documents were excluded due to incomplete sprint details. Pre-processing involved completeness checks and One-Hot Encoding of team role compositions, without feature scaling. A Decision Tree Regressor, Random Forest Regressor, and Hybrid Model (Voting Regressor) were evaluated using 3-fold cross-validation based on MAPE, RMSE, and R² metrics. Result: The Random Forest Regressor demonstrated the best relative performance among the three models, achieving a MAPE of 23.55%, an RMSE of IDR 35.27 million, and an R² of -0.535. Across the 30 sprint predictions, the Random Forest model showed a mean deviation of 23.55% ± 31.69%, a median of 9.98%, and a range of 0.78%–125.33%, highlighting performance variation across sprints and supporting the model's application within a human-in-the-loop framework. Feature importance analysis identified `sprint_duration_days` as the dominant feature, followed by `role_programmer_jr` and `role_qa_sr`. Novelty: These findings demonstrate the system's practical contribution, particularly in streamlining budgeting bureaucracy by accelerating the process from days of manual preparation to just a few minutes through automated execution.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

sji

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering

Description

Scientific Journal of Informatics (p-ISSN 2407-7658 | e-ISSN 2460-0040) published by the Department of Computer Science, Universitas Negeri Semarang, a scientific journal of Information Systems and Information Technology which includes scholarly writings on pure research and applied research in the ...