Population growth and urban expansion in Baguala District, Ambon City, have increased the demand for housing and residential land. This situation necessitates settlement development guidelines that account for land demand, availability, suitability, and regional carrying capacity. This study aims to determine guidelines for residential land development in Baguala District based on demand, land potential, carrying capacity, and development priorities. A descriptive quantitative approach was employed, utilizing spatial analysis based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The analysis encompassed population projection using the arithmetic method, residential land demand, identification of potential land via overlay and scoring techniques, residential carrying capacity, and the determination of development priorities. The results indicate that residential land demand is projected to reach 1,983.37 hectares by 2044, while a surplus of 1,724.54 hectares of undeveloped land remains available. Potential land for residential development totals 399.24 hectares, with the largest area located in Negeri Passo. A residential carrying capacity value of 12.25 (>1) demonstrates that Baguala District retains the capacity to support further residential development. Based on potential land area and accessibility, Negeri Passo has been designated as the primary priority area for residential development. These findings can serve as a basis for establishing sustainable guidelines for residential development and control in Baguala District.
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