<![CDATA[Fishing-ground estimation is commonly conducted using catch-based analysis. However, this approach has not consistently produced accurate estimates. Upwelling offers an alternative approach because it influences the variability of oceanographic parameters, which, in turn, affect fish distribution and the dynamics of fishing grounds. This study aimed to (1) identify upwelling-favorable conditions based on the combined variability of SST, chlorophyll a, salinity, and SLH, and (2) predict potential fishing zones associated with upwelling in the southern waters of Palabuhanratu Bay. Satellite derived SST, chlorophyll a, salinity, and SLH data were integrated to estimate the location and timing of upwelling, while catch and fishing effort data from trolling line fleets were used to calculate fishing productivity. The results showed that upwelling occurred predominantly from July to November and was characterized by decreased SST (24.21–29.56°C), increased chlorophyll-a concentration (0.07–0.76 mg/m3), elevated surface salinity (32.91–34.49‰), and persistent negative SLH anomalies (0.19–0.67 m). Upwelling events were more frequent and intense in coastal waters than in offshore areas. Locations and periods with higher upwelling frequency consistently exhibited higher catch per unit effort (CPUE). Statistical analysis revealed a significant relationship between upwelling and catch productivity (r = 0.570; F = 3.854; p < 0.05). During the upwelling period, CPUE in potential fishing zones reached 759–1,067 kg/trip, while CPUE in coastal upwelling areas reached 658–749 kg/trip, exceeding the cumulative CPUE of 643 kg/trip. Integrating oceanographic indicators with fisheries data enhances fishing-ground prediction and ecosystem-based fisheries management.]]>
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