<![CDATA[Petroleum Motor Spirit (PMS) prices in Nigeria exhibit substantial fluctuations that challenge conventional linear forecasting approaches and complicate policy and market planning. This study applies a seventh-order sinusoidal wave-function model to analyze and predict PMS price dynamics in Nigeria. Annual PMS price data were modeled using a sinusoidal framework designed to capture the recurring oscillatory behavior associated with regulated fuel-pricing systems. A logarithmic transformation and the Least Squares Method (LSM) were employed to reduce data dispersion and obtain robust parameter estimates. Model performance was validated through correlation analysis between observed and predicted prices, while pilot testing was conducted to assess the model’s reliability, stability, and predictive relevance. The results demonstrate a high degree of association between actual PMS prices and model estimates, indicating that the sinusoidal structure adequately represents the cyclical behavior of PMS prices during the study period. The findings further suggest that PMS price variations are not explained primarily by linear temporal progression but follow a wave-like pattern consistent with periodic policy adjustments, market interventions, and regulatory decisions. The proposed model therefore provides a useful analytical framework for interpreting PMS price fluctuations and forecasting future price movements within Nigeria’s fuel-pricing regime. This study contributes a nonlinear modeling approach that may support evidence-based fuel-pricing analysis, regulatory planning, and policy decision-making.]]>
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