<![CDATA[Abstract. Yi HM, Jung YP, Lee SH, Sung KJ. 2026. Soybean adoption and cultivation intensity in Korean paddy fields using a double-hurdle model. Asian J Agric 10 (2): g100215. https://doi.org/10.13057/asianjagric/g100215. The South Korean Government (Republic of Korea) has promoted crop diversification in paddy fields in response to persistent rice overproduction, with the aim of improving land-use efficiency and strengthening food security. Soybean has received particular attention as an alternative crop because of its economic and strategic importance. However, less is known about the factors associated with farmers’ decisions to adopt soybean cultivation and the share of paddy land allocated to soybeans after adoption. This study examines these two decisions using Cragg’s double-hurdle model. The analysis uses survey data from 150 farm households in two pilot regions, Okseong (Gimje) and Sugok (Haman), where a paddy-field utilization pilot project was implemented. In the adoption stage, the Okseong District indicator has the largest coefficient (1.776, p < 0.01), indicating substantial differences between the two regions. Greater tractor use and a higher share of self-owned land are also positively associated with soybean adoption, while farming experience is negatively associated with adoption. In the second stage, soybean cultivation intensity, measured as the share of paddy land allocated to soybeans, is positively associated with age, family labor, tractor use, and perceived land suitability, and negatively associated with farming experience and self-owned land share. The unconditional marginal effects show that the Okseong indicator is associated with a 53.2 percentage-point higher soybean area share. Tractor use and perceived land suitability are associated with increases of 6.3 and 12.7 percentage points, respectively, while male farm management is associated with an 8.6 percentage-point lower soybean area share. These results indicate that the factors associated with soybean adoption are not identical to those associated with cultivation intensity after adoption. The Okseong association should be interpreted as a regional difference rather than as an isolated effect of the pilot program, because the cross-sectional data do not allow policy exposure to be separated from pre-existing differences between the two regions. The findings suggest that production conditions, mechanization, and broader regional context are associated with soybean diversification in paddy fields, although the results should be interpreted as statistical associations rather than causal effects.]]>
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