<![CDATA[Persistent spatial inequality can remain hidden when poverty is assessed only at national or provincial scale. This study examines the associations of the Human Development Index (HDI), real gross regional domestic product (GRDP) growth, and the open unemployment rate with the poverty rate across all 10 districts/cities of West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia, during 2019–2024. The balanced panel contains 60 district-year observations and spans the COVID-19 shock and subsequent recovery. Pooled, fixed-effects, and random-effects specifications were compared using Chow, Hausman, and Breusch–Pagan Lagrange multiplier tests. The tests support a cross-section random-effects generalized least-squares model. HDI is negatively and statistically associated with poverty (β = −0.2613, SE = 0.0486, p < 0.001): a one-point increase in HDI corresponds to a 0.261-percentage-point lower poverty rate, conditional on the other regressors. GRDP growth (β = −0.0042, p = 0.722) and open unemployment (β = −0.1186, p = 0.382) are not statistically distinguishable from zero. The weighted model is jointly significant (F = 11.1439, p < 0.001) and explains 37.4% of within-model variation. The findings prioritize human-capability formation while showing why aggregate growth and headline unemployment may be insufficient proxies for inclusive welfare in a short, shock-exposed regional panel. Because the design is observational and the reported standard errors are model-based, the estimates should be interpreted as conditional associations rather than causal effects.]]>
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