<![CDATA[Local governments must be able to accurately predict the growth of the Natural Resources Revenue Sharing Fund (DBH SDA) to prevent over-or under-budgeting, repeated APBD revisions, and low budget absorption. This study examines the determinants of the growth of the Natural Resources Revenue Sharing Fund (DBH SDA) in Indonesia, namely local government size, fiscal capacity, poverty, and land area. An explanatory quantitative approach was applied to secondary panel data from 247 district/city governments during 2022-2024, resulting in 741 observations. Data were obtained from the Directorate General of Fiscal Balance (DJPK), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), and the Ministry of Home Affairs and then analyzed using a random effects model with robust standard errors to avoid classical assumption problems. The test results show that local government size has a positive effect on the growth of DBH SDA, while fiscal capacity and poverty have a negative effect, and land area has a positive but insignificant impact. These findings suggest that institutional capacity and fiscal conditions are more important than physical characteristics in explaining disparities in the growth of DBH SDA between regions and serve as the basis for formulating more equitable fiscal transfer policies. ]]>
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