Zero : Jurnal Sains, Matematika, dan Terapan
Vol 10, No 2 (2026): Zero: Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Terapan

Ensemble Anomaly Detection and SHAP-Based Attribution for Mapping Educational Inequality across Indonesian Provinces

Emeylia Safitri (Statistics Study Program, Universitas Terbuka, South Tangerang, 15437, Indonesia)
I Gusti Ngurah Sentana Putra (Statistics and Data Science, IPB University, Bogor, 15580, Indonesia)
Yeni Rahkmawati (Department of Statistics, Universitas Lambung Mangkurat, Banjar Baru, 70714, Indonesia)
Ika Nur Laily Fitriana (Statistics Study Program, Universitas Terbuka, South Tangerang, 15437, Indonesia)
Nuramaliyah Nuramaliyah (Statistics Study Program, Universitas Terbuka, South Tangerang, 15437, Indonesia)
Ria Faulina (Statistics Study Program, Universitas Terbuka, South Tangerang, 15437, Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 Aug 2026

Abstract

Educational inequality across Indonesia’s 38 provinces remains a challenge to equitable development. This study identifies anomalous provincial educational profiles by comparing Isolation Forest, Local Outlier Factor, and One-Class SVM across 50 parameter configurations in five analytical categories. The framework integrates ensemble majority voting, SHAP-based attribution, and leave-one-out robustness testing. Under the Silhouette-based selection criterion, Isolation Forest with contamination 0.05 ranked highest in four categories, with Silhouette Scores of 0.47-0.60 and Stability Scores of 1.0. However, sensitivity analysis showed that this criterion tends to favor configurations detecting fewer anomalies, so IF (0.05) should not be considered unambiguously superior. Highland Papua was consistently identified as anomalous across all categories. SHAP highlighted socioeconomic indicators, particularly rural child-labor participation, as important contributors to anomaly scores. Given the single-year design, 38 observations, and high feature-to-sample ratio, findings should be interpreted as exploratory descriptive mapping rather than causal or broadly generalizable inference.

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