Return : Study of Management, Economic and Bussines
Vol. 5 No. 8 (2026): Return: Study of Management, Economic and Business

Risk-Adjusted Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) Based on Financial and Non-Financial Factor Integration Model in Prioritizing Decarbonization Projects at National Energy Company

Rafi Herfini (Universitas Pertamina)
Suhari Pranyoto (Universitas Pertamina)
Eka Puspitawati (Universitas Pertamina)



Article Info

Publish Date
24 Aug 2026

Abstract

PT Pertamina (Persero)’s commitment to supporting Indonesia’s Net Zero Emissions 2060 target highlights the need to prioritize decarbonization projects based not only on financial feasibility but also on financial risks and non-financial factors. This study aimed to develop a Risk-Adjusted Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) model that integrates these three dimensions. The study employed a qualitative approach supported by descriptive quantitative analysis using data from PT Pertamina (Persero)’s decarbonization initiatives. Financial performance was assessed using Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC), Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Payback Period (PP), while financial risk and non-financial criteria were identified through a Focus Group Discussion (FGD) involving 23 experts with more than 10 years of experience in decarbonization, energy transition, energy investment, and risk management. Of the 174 decarbonization initiatives identified, 46 strategies had complete data and were eligible for assessment across all financial, financial-risk, and non-financial indicators. The results showed that integrating all criteria changed the project priority rankings compared with assessments based solely on financial performance. The Renewable Energy Investment for Marine and Terminal Operations strategy ranked first, with a weighted composite score of 4.87, followed by Installation of ESD (fin, duct, etc.) with a score of 4.68 and Shore Connection (Cold Ironing) for Auxiliary Engine Replacement Using Grid/Generated Electricity with a score of 4.59. The proposed model generated a more comprehensive prioritization framework and may serve as a decision-support tool for decarbonization investment planning.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

return

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

The Journal RETURN is a double blind peer-reviewed academic journal and open access to social and scientific fields. The journal is published monthly by PT. Publikasiku Academic Solution. The Jurnal RETURN provides a means for sustained discussion of relevant issues that fall within the focus and ...