Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies
Vol. 6 No. 2 (2026): Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies

Hubungan kausal antara nilai tukar, suku bunga, dan inflasi di negara anggota BRICS+

Siti Mawadah Fitria (Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Universitas Negeri Jakarta)
Sri Indah Nikensari (Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Universitas Negeri Jakarta)
Siti Fatimah Zahra (Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Universitas Negeri Jakarta)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 Aug 2026

Abstract

This study analyses the bidirectional causal relationship between exchange rates, interest rates, and inflation rates in the 10 BRICS+ member countries from 2015 to 2025. This study uses secondary data and a quantitative approach employing the Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) method. The results indicate no unidirectional or bidirectional causal relationship between exchange rates and interest rates; the Granger causality test shows that exchange rates do not affect interest rates, nor do interest rates affect exchange rates. The Granger causality test indicates a one-way causal relationship between the exchange rate and inflation: only inflation affects the exchange rate, while the exchange rate does not affect inflation. Similarly, for the relationship between interest rates and inflation, the Granger causality results show a unidirectional relationship: interest rates influence inflation, and both the exchange rate and interest rates simultaneously influence inflation. These findings show that the PVAR-GMM model can still produce valid, informative estimates when applied to countries with diverse macroeconomic characteristics, such as the BRICS+ member states.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jerps

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

Journal of Economics Research and Policy Studies [2797-8141] is a scientific journal that contains the results of theoretical research and studies on economics issues. The focus of this journal article is Economics, Economic Entrepreneurship, and start-up, development economics, monetary and fiscal ...