<![CDATA[This study aims to analyze the export competitiveness of Indonesian coconut products in the China and ASEAN markets (Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore) during the 2014–2024 period, with particular attention to the shifting export structure toward raw materials and the potential for downstream processing (hilirisasi). A quantitative descriptive-explanatory approach was employed using secondary time-series data sourced from UN Comtrade, BPS (Statistics Indonesia), and Trademap. The analysis was conducted using three indicators: Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Trade Specialization Index (ISP), and Export Product Dynamics (EPD). The results show that Indonesian coconut exports generally exhibit strong competitiveness and a stable net-exporter position, with the highest comparative advantage found in fresh coconut, while crude/virgin coconut oil (CCO/VCO)—the only processed product examined—shows a declining competitiveness trend across nearly all destination markets. The export structure and trend reveal a strengthening tendency toward raw-material exports, while processed products, despite still contributing a larger average export value, show slowing growth. These findings indicate that future opportunities to improve export competitiveness lie in strengthening national coconut downstream processing capacity, rather than further expanding raw-material exports that are already competitive. Theoretically, these findings reinforce Porter’s (1990) national competitiveness staging framework by showing that a high RCA on raw products can signal that a country remains trapped in the factor-driven stage. Practically, this study is expected to provide input for industry players and policymakers in formulating strategies to increase the added value of Indonesian coconut exports, including considerations for downstream-policy intervention.]]>
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