Overconfidence Bias dalam Pengambilan Keputusan Keuangan pada PT Alumindo Light Metal Industry TBK: Studi Komparatif Model Altman Z-Score dan Springate dalam Memprediksi Kebangkrutan

Abdul Aziz Fuadi (Universitas Yudharta Pasuruan)
Lailatul Faizziyah (Universitas Yudharta Pasuruan)
Alfi Maulidatus Sholihah (Universitas Yudharta Pasuruan)
Inayatul Maula (Universitas Yudharta Pasuruan)
Dera Fetrisiya (Universitas Yudharta Pasuruan)

Optimal: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Manajemen
Vol. 5 No. 3 (2025): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Manajemen

This study aims to analyze the influence of overconfidence bias in the financial decision-making of PT Alumindo Light Metal Industry Tbk and to evaluate the company’s financial condition using two bankruptcy prediction models: the Altman Z-Score and the Springate model. Overconfidence bias refers to the managerial tendency to overestimate their abilities and underestimate risks in making strategic decisions. This research adopts a descriptive quantitative approach using a case study method, with data collected from the company’s financial statements from 2019 to 2023. The results show a consistent decline in both Z-Score and Springate scores, placing the company in the distress zone over the last four years. Despite these warning signs, management continued to pursue expansion strategies and increase debt levels, indicating the presence of overconfidence bias. Both models demonstrated consistent results and proved to be effective early warning tools for detecting bankruptcy risk. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the importance of mitigating psychological bias in corporate financial decision-making.