<![CDATA[This study aims to forecasting spike in the total of tourists in North Toraja district in 2021 with the applied of ARIMA model. The research method used is applied research with quantitative secondary data obtained in BPS Kab. Toraja Utara. The research procedures include model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic stage and forcasting with used soft computer is Minitab 18. Based on the research result, obtained five time series models are used to forcasting the number of tourists in North Toraja2021 is ARIMA (1,1,1), ARIMA (2,1,1) and ARIMA (1,2,1). The right criteria in selecting the best model is the model that has the smallest Mean Square (MS) value. In this case the time series model with the smallest MS is ARIMA (1,1,1) is 16487384. Thus, this model used in doing the forecasting is ARIMA (1,1,1) with the general form that’s 푍푡=0,925푍푡−1+0,075푍푡−2+푎푡−0,9830푎푡−1.The forcasting result from January to December 2021 are 13984.9; 14924.1; 15033.1; 15204,6; 15371.4; 15538,6; 15705,7; 15872.8; 16040; 16207,1; 16374.2 and 16541.4.]]>
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