SAINSMAT: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam
Vol. 15 No. 1 (2026): Volume 15 Nomor 1 (Maret 2026)

Modelling Of Coronary Heart Disease Risk Using Penalized Spline Semiparametric Logistic Regression Based On Hypertension History And Fatty Food Consumption

Naufal Ramadhan Al Akhwal Siregar (Universitas Airlangga)
Nur Chamidah (Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology,Airlangga University)
Marisa Rifada (Universitas Airlangga)



Article Info

Publish Date
03 Jul 2026

Abstract

Coronary heart disease (CHD) remains a critical global health challenge, necessitating precise statistical modeling to unravel its complex risk factors. This study applies a binary semiparametric logistic regression model with a penalized spline estimator (SLR-PS) to investigate these determinants effectively. The model achieved a classification accuracy of 70.45% and a promising sensitivity of 77.8%. In clinical settings, this sensitivity is paramount as it ensures the accurate identification of true positive cases, minimizing the risk of undiagnosed severe conditions. The findings unveil a significant nonlinear effect of fatty food intake on CHD risk, emphasizing the critical role of dietary control. Parametrically, individuals with a history of hypertension are found to be 4.641 times more likely to experience CHD compared to their counterparts, while each incremental unit of fatty food intake is associated with a 1.8% increase in CHD odds. These results highlight the urgency of managing hypertension and reducing dietary fat to mitigate cardiovascular risks, directly contributing to the advancement of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3: Good Health and Well-Being. Future research is recommended to expand this framework by incorporating physical activity, genetic predisposition, and stress to further enhance predictive accuracy and support evidence-based preventive strategies.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

sainsmat

Publisher

Subject

Description

The objective of this journal is to publish original, fully peer-reviewed articles on a variety of topics and research methods in sciences, mathematics, statistics, education, and applied science. The journal welcomes articles that address common issues in mathematics, sciences, statistics, ...