Journal of Emerging Information Systems and Business Intelligence (JEISBI)
Vol. 7 No. 2 (2026): Vol. 07 Issue 02

Time Series Regression to Analyzing and Forecasting Tourist Visitation in Batang Regency

Fatma Abiyya Fawasi (Universitas Negeri Surabaya)
Wiyli Yustanti (Universitas Negeri Surabaya)



Article Info

Publish Date
28 Jul 2026

Abstract

This study aims to develop a forecasting model for the number of tourists at five tourist destinations in Batang Regency using historical tourist visit data and external factors, as well as to implement the best model into an application. The methods used are Random Forest Regressor, XGBoost Regressor, GRU, and LSTM, with stages based on Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD), feature selection, hyperparameter tuning, and evaluation using MAPE, RMSE, MAE, and R2. The results show that the best model was obtained from XGB-4, with an average MAPE of 4.96%, RMSE of 526.93, MAE of 428.07, and R2 of 0.972. The features that significantly affect the model include Exponantial Moving Average (EMA), trend, lagging, volatility, temperature max, and rain. The best model was implemented in an application called LARAS BATANG, which stands for Layanan Ramalan Wisata Batang. The application displays tourism forecasting results with several destination options and forecasting periods. In addition, the application can show a forecasting prototype that includes a summary, a time series line chart, a donut chart of visitor data proportions, and a feature importance bar chart.

Copyrights © 2026






Journal Info

Abbrev

JEISBI

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Library & Information Science

Description

Journal of Emerging Information Systems and Business Intelligence (JEISBI) aims to provide scholarly literature focused on studies and research in the fields of Information Systems (IS) and Business Intelligence (BI). This journal also includes public reviews on the development of theories, methods, ...