<![CDATA[The Russia-Ukraine conflict, which escalated to its peak in 2022, marks a fundamental turning point in the regional security order of Eurasia. Although Russia has long maintained instruments of hegemony through the “Near Abroad” doctrine and various regional organizations, its effort to preserve this influence has instead triggered a complex security dilemma within the contemporary geopolitical context. The limits of diplomatic engagement in the face of NATO enlargement, the intensifying securitization of existential threats by the Kremlin, and the shift toward coercive militaristic strategies have increased the vulnerability of the security structure across the post-Soviet region. Within this context, the Russian Federation has sought to reassert its Sphere of Influence (SoI) as a zone of vital interest through acts of defensive revisionism intended to correct perceived regional security imbalances. This study analyzes the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict for the dynamics of Russia’s Sphere of Influence during the 2022–2025 period. The research employs a qualitative method with descriptive analysis, drawing on library research and a supporting interview. It applies Neorealism and Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) to explain the transformation of the regional security structure from an order centered on a single power (Centered RSC) toward regional fragmentation. The findings show that Russia’s military actions triggered a security dilemma that accelerated decentralization within the Post-Soviet RSC, marked by a credibility crisis in Russian-led institutions such as the CSTO and the EAEU, and by the growing agency of neighboring states through hedging strategies with external actors such as China and Turkey. The study concludes that Russia’s effort to preserve its influence has instead produced regional fragmentation and entrenched an overlapping security complex that weakens Russia’s regional cohesion.]]>
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