International Journal of Economics, Management and Accounting
Vol. 3 No. 3 (2026): International Journal of Economics, Management and Accounting

The Effect of Government Expenditure, Population Growth, Unemployment Rate, Inflation, and Exports on Indonesia's Economic Growth during the Period 1991–2025

Shyntia Khairunnisa (Universitas PGRI Sumatera Barat)
Nilmadesri Rosya (Universitas PGRI Sumatera Barat)
Yosi Eka Putri (Universitas PGRI Sumatera Barat)



Article Info

Publish Date
16 Sep 2026

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of government expenditure, population growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and exports on Indonesia's economic growth over the period 1991–2025, both partially and simultaneously. During this period, Indonesia's economic growth fluctuated sharply, including contractions during the 1997–1998 monetary crisis and the 2020 pandemic, raising questions about its determinants. This study employs a quantitative approach using secondary annual time-series data from the World Bank spanning 35 years (1991–2025). The sample was selected using purposive sampling based on data availability and analyzed using multiple linear regression with EViews, preceded by stationarity tests, a likelihood ratio test, the Ramsey RESET test, and classical assumption tests. The results show that government expenditure, population growth, and the unemployment rate are redundant based on the likelihood ratio test (probabilities of 0.4617, 0.7392, and 0.7327, respectively, all > 0.05) and were therefore excluded from the final estimation model. Inflation has a negative and significant effect on economic growth (coefficient -0.346019; probability 0.0000), while exports have a positive and significant effect (coefficient 0.004104; probability 0.0004). Simultaneously, inflation and exports significantly affect economic growth (F-statistic 87.72993; probability 0.000000) with an Adjusted R² of 0.840163, indicating that the two variables jointly explain 84.02% of the variation in Indonesia's economic growth during the study period.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

IJEMA

Publisher

Subject

Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

Topics in this journal relate to any aspect of management, but are not limited to the following topics: Human Resource Management, Financial Management, Marketing Management, Public Sector Management, Operational Management, Supply Chain Management, Corporate Governance, Business Ethics, Management ...