Al'Adzkiya International of Computer Science and Information Technology Journal
Vol 7, No 2 (2026)

Machine Learning Algorithms for IT Project Risk Level Identification: A Multi Classifier Framework with Systematic Preprocessing and Per-Class Evaluation

Pastima Simanjuntak (Universitas Ahmad Dahlan)
Sunardi Sunardi (Universitas Ahmad Dahlan)
Anton Yudhana (Universitas Ahmad Dahlan)



Article Info

Publish Date
04 Oct 2026

Abstract

The persistently high failure rate of Information Technology (IT) projects, driven by inadequate risk identification, remains a critical organizational challenge, and conventional risk assessment based on subjective expert judgment struggles to model the non-linear interdependencies in large-scale project data. This research proposes a multi-classifier machine learning (ML) framework for automated IT project risk level identification (Low, Medium, High), built on two contributions: a systematic, auditable preprocessing protocol (explicit target-leakage screening, a controlled before/after comparison of the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE), and hyperparameter optimization) and a per-class ordinal-consistency evaluation that decomposes misclassifications by their severity relative to the ordinal risk structure. Five classifiers were evaluated on 10,919 historical IT project records: Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), Decision Tree (DT), and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN). The leakage screening identified and removed a variable that deterministically encoded the target label. After SMOTE and hyperparameter tuning, SVM achieved the best single-model performance (accuracy 83.65%, macro F1-score 0.759), followed by RF (82.14%, 0.731), LR (80.82%, 0.744), DT (73.72%, 0.669), and KNN (69.64%, 0.596); a five-model soft-voting ensemble reached 83.42% accuracy and a macro F1-score of 0.757. Across all sixteen model/stage configurations (7,165 aggregate misclassifications), the non-adjacent error rate, a High-risk project predicted as Low-risk or vice versa, was exactly zero, a reliability property invisible to aggregate accuracy or F1-score.

Copyrights © 2026






Journal Info

Abbrev

AIoCSIT

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT

Description

Computer Science, Computer Engineering and Informatics: Data Science Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Neural Network, Computer Architecture, Parallel and Distributed Computer, Pervasive Computing, Computer Network, Embedded System, Human—Computer Interaction, Virtual/Augmented Reality, ...