International Journal of Computing Science and Applied Mathematics-IJCSAM
Vol. 12 No. 2 (2026)

A Simulation of the Discrete Time Markov ChainSusceptible Vaccinated Exposed Infected Recovered (DTMC SVEIR) Model with Relapse Cases in theSpread of Tuberculosis*

Respatiwulan Respatiwulan (Universitas Sebelas Maret)
Hasih Pratiwi (Universitas Sebelas Maret)
Sri Sulistijowati Handajani (Universitas Sebelas Maret)
Yuliana Susanti (Universitas Sebelas Maret)
Kiki Ferawati (Universitas Sebelas Maret)
Muhammad Bayu Nirwana (Universitas Sebelas Maret)
Andreas Rony Wijaya (Universitas Sebelas Maret)
Aprilia Saniatul Rahmawati (Universitas Sebelas Maret)
Embun Zahra Nirmala (Universitas Sebelas Maret)



Article Info

Publish Date
11 Oct 2026

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) is a contagious disease that pri-marily affects the lungs and spreads through the air whenan infected person coughs, sneezes, or spits. TB remains as asignificant global health issue, with millions of cases and deathsannually. There are mathematical epidemiological models thathave been developed, including SIR, SEIR, and SVEIR forexplaining the spread of disease pattern. The SVEIR modelexplains the impact of vaccination on disease transmission such asTB. In TB cases, the recovered individuals could be relapsed andbe infected again. This study discussed a Discrete Time MarkovChain (DTMC) SVEIR model and applied model simulation toTB disease. The population is divided into five groups such assusceptible, vaccinated, exposed, infected, and recovered. Thechanges of group’s state follow Markov process in discretetime observation. The model is extension from DTMC SEIRwith relapse by adding Vaccinated compartment. The modelis expressed as transition probability that explain the changesof state in each group. The simulation results indicate that thespread of the disease is significantly influenced by parametersvalue such as contact rate, vaccination rate, vaccine effectiveness,relapse rate, and recovery rate. If contact rate higher thanthe recovery rate then the number of infected individuals willincrease. The other hand, if vaccination works effectively thenthe number of susceptible individuals decrease. Lower relapserates lead to higher recovery numbers, whereas higher relapserates accelerate reinfection

Copyrights © 2026






Journal Info

Abbrev

ijcsam

Publisher

Subject

Mathematics

Description

IJCSAM (International Journal of Computing Science and Applied Mathematics) is an open access journal publishing advanced results in the fields of computations, science and applied mathematics, as mentioned explicitly in the scope of the journal. The journal is geared towards dissemination of ...