Modelling Social and Environmental Determinants of Urban Housing in Developing Countries: A Delphi Approach

Sampa Chisumbe (Department of Construction Economics and Management, School of Built Environment, Copperbelt University, Kitwe, Zambia)
Clinton Aigbavboa (Department of Construction Management and Quantity Surveying, Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa)
Wellington Didibhuku Thwala (Faculty of Engineering, Built Environment and information Technology, Walter Sisulu University, East London, South Africa)
Anthony Mushinge (Department of Real Estate Finance, School of Built Environment, Copperbelt University, Kitwe, Zambia)
Erastus Mwanaumo (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia)

Journal of Contemporary Urban Affairs
Vol. 10 No. 2 (2026): Journal of Contemporary Urban Affairs

Urban housing development is an outcome of several predictors ranging from finance, governance, land tenure security, and social and environmental factors, among others. However, despite scholars acknowledging their importance, social and environmental dimensions remain inadequately conceptualised within the housing development agenda from a developing country's perspective, as evidenced by socially and environmentally constrained human settlements. Using Zambia as a case study, this research models social and environmental determinants of urban housing development. Methodologically, a Delphi approach was employed, with data collected over two iterative rounds from a panel of ten experts drawn from the Ministry of Local Government, non-governmental organisations, financial institutions, property developers, housing institutions, and academia. Twelve environmental and thirteen social attributes were evaluated, achieving strong second-round consensus (interquartile deviation ≤ 1) on most items. Findings reveal that promoting culturally reflective designs, linking housing to broader urban fabrics, sustainable policies, and local building materials will yield viable housing solutions for communities. The study recommends mandatory, enforceable eco-friendly and socially adaptive housing regulations, guiding policymakers on prioritising environmental and social attributes to advance climate-responsive, socially cohesive, well-linked human settlements that promote economic inclusion.