Jurnal Al Azhar Indonesia Seri Ilmu Sosial
Vol. 7 No. 2 (2026): inpres

Contested Seas, Unsettled Order: Great Power Rivalry and the Limits of ASEAN Centrality in the South China Sea

Aditya Romadhon (Universitas Jambi)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Jul 2026

Abstract

The South China Sea has become the primary arena through which the broader Sino-American rivalry is playing out, and in doing so it has placed ASEAN Centrality, long the organising principle of Southeast Asian diplomacy, under unprecedented strain. This article examines how great power competition has eroded ASEAN's institutional agency over the decade from 2016 to 2026. Drawing on qualitative document analysis and a tripartite theoretical framework, the study applies Neorealist, Neoliberal Institutionalist, and Constructivist lenses to account for ASEAN's growing inability to manage maritime disputes. The findings show that China's gray-zone coercion, the persistent failure of the Code of Conduct negotiations, and the proliferation of exclusive minilateral arrangements such as AUKUS and the Quad have collectively undermined the credibility of ASEAN-led multilateralism. Individual member states have responded by pursuing sharply divergent hedging and bandwagoning strategies, deepening the organisation's internal fractures. The article concludes that without meaningful institutional reform that moves beyond the rigid "ASEAN Way," ASEAN Centrality will remain an aspiration rather than a practical reality.  

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Journal Info

Abbrev

JAISS

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance Environmental Science Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Social Sciences

Description

Jurnal Al Azhar Indonesia Seri Sosial merupakan jurnal ilmiah untuk bidang Sosial yang diterbitkan setiap bulan Februari dan Agustus. Jurnal Al Azhar Indonesia Seri Sosial dikelola LPPM Universitas Al Azhar Indonesia sejak tahun 2020. Jurnal Al Azhar Indonesia Seri Sosial mempublikasikan artikel ...