TELKOMNIKA (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control)
Vol 24, No 5: October 2026

Forecasting particulate matter concentration using deep learning and weather data

Ahmad Furqon (Universitas Indonesia)
Santoso Soekirno (Universitas Indonesia)
Naufal Ananda (Region II of Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency)
Haryas Subyantara Wicaksana (Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics)
Ahmad Meijlan Yasir (State College of Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics)
Tonny Wahyu Aji (State College of Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics)
Aviv Maghridlo (State College of Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics)
Fadhli Luthfiansyah (State College of Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics)
Marzuki Sinambela (State School of Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics)
Suko Prayitno Adi (State School of Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics)



Article Info

Publish Date
01 Oct 2026

Abstract

Particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration is a critical air quality indicator with severe health impacts. Predicting its dynamics is challenging due to complex interactions with meteorological variables. This study evaluates long short-term memory (LSTM) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) networks to identify the most accurate forecasting architecture. We integrated continuous data from automatic weather stations (AWS) and air quality sensors. Data preprocessing involved temporal synchronization, outlier removal, and multivariate imputation by chained equations (MICE). Key input features past particulate matter, temperature, and relative humidity were selected via Pearson correlation and trained using a 24-hour sliding window. Results demonstrate that the single LSTM model outperforms both the MLP and hybrid architectures. The LSTM achieved the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) of 6.862 µg/m³ and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 37.38%. Although the MLP yielded a slightly higher coefficient of determination (0.810), it exhibited significant magnitude bias by treating sequential data as static features. Ultimately, this research provides a robust, data-driven framework for real-time air quality early warning systems in tropical regions.

Copyrights © 2026






Journal Info

Abbrev

TELKOMNIKA

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT

Description

Submitted papers are evaluated by anonymous referees by single blind peer review for contribution, originality, relevance, and presentation. The Editor shall inform you of the results of the review as soon as possible, hopefully in 10 weeks. Please notice that because of the great number of ...