Dynamics of land cover change on population growth based on Geographic Information System (GIS) 2020–2024 in Palembang city

Afif Naufal Ricardi (Department of Environmental Management, Postgraduate Program, Universitas Sriwijaya, Jl. Padang Selasa No. 524, Bukit Besar, Palembang 30139, South Sumatra, Indonesia)
Wijaya Mardiansyah (Department of Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Sriwijaya, Jl. Palembang-Prabumulih Km. 32, Indralaya, Ogan Ilir 30662, South Sumatra, Indonesia)
Gerry Utama (Department of Geomorphology, Institute of Earth Sciences. Saint Petersburg State University, University Embankment, 7/9, St Petersburg 199034, Rusia)

Jurnal Lahan Suboptimal
Vol. 15 No. 2 (2026): JLSO

This study aimed to analyzes population growth and land cover change in Palembang City from 2020 to 2024 using GIS, the overlay method, and correlation analysis between population data and time-series land cover maps. The results show that population growth significantly contributes to the expansion of open/built-up land, particularly in densely populated districts such as Sukarami, Ilir Barat Satu, and Alang-Alang Lebar. The correlation matrix indicates a strong association between population and open/built-up land (r=0.84), and a moderate association with vegetation (r=0.47). A strong negative interaction between open/built-up land and vegetation (r=0.77) suggests that the growth of built-up regions reduces green space. Population size is almost uncorrelated with water/clouds (r=0.01), indicating that natural factors have a greater influence on this category than human activity. Overall, the study concludes that population expansion in Palembang drives urbanization and vegetation decline, highlighting the need for sustainable spatial management to maintain a balance between development and environmental sustainability.