The high flood hazard potential in the Kedungbener Subwatershed significantly impacts the surrounding environment, including the agricultural sector. This research aimed to analyze potential flood hazards to agricultural areas under 2-year and 10-year return period scenarios. Flood hazard was generated using HEC-RAS with a rain-on-grid approach to identify the distribution and extent of the inundation area over land cover. The results demonstrated that the flood-affected agricultural areas reached 921.15 ha (58.12%) for the 2-year return period and 994.47 ha (62.75%) for the 10-year return period. This indicates that more than half of the agricultural areas were impacted by the flood. The model was validated using a confusion matrix, which showed that the under-2-year return period flood model achieved an accuracy of 84.38%, while the 10-year return period flood model achieved an accuracy of 90.62%. Given the higher accuracy of the 10-year return period, the model is considered more representative in predicting flood hazards within agricultural areas. Based on that accuracy, the AUC of 0.863 indicates that the HEC-RAS flood hazard prediction model falls within the “Accepted” category. This result provides a critical foundation for the related stakeholders to formulate targeted flood mitigation strategies for the agricultural sector.
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