<![CDATA[This study examines the adoption of hybrid rice varieties and their impact on rice productivity in Indonesia using nationally representative data from the 2017 Survei Ongkos Usaha Tani (SOUT217). Employing a Heckman two-step and Endogenous Switching Regression (ESR) model, the analysis addresses selection bias to estimate the causal effects of hybrid seed use. The findings show that 12.7% of farmers adopt hybrid seeds, mainly those with better access to subsidies, irrigation, machinery, and extension. This implies that hybrid varieties do not consistently increase yields and may underperform in the absence of supporting inputs. The ESR model confirms that hybrid adoption can lead to lower productivity, particularly among farmers without access to complementary resources. These findings challenge the prevailing assumption that hybrid seeds can enhance rice production. This study contributes to the literature by providing robust national-level causal evidence on the productivity effects of hybrid rice seed adoption using an endogenous switching regression framework. From a policy perspective, the findings inform the design of targeted seed subsidies, adaptive extension services, and complementary rural infrastructure investments to support sustainable productivity growth in Indonesia’s rice sector.]]>
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