<![CDATA[Produced water is a primary operational challenge in gas fields, as it can restrict gas flow and severely reduce well productivity. Diagnosing and identifying water influx sources in directional gas wells is critical to mitigating this phenomenon and optimizing well performance. This study details a quantitative workflow evaluating water-gas production dynamics to identify key drivers of water influx, water coning and channeling. Furthermore, it determines whether the reservoir aquifer boundary has shifted. This study uses algorithms derived from classical model water-to-gas ratio diagnostic, reservoir and geological evaluations based on the transient analysis radius of investigation and predictive models to forecast cumulative gas production at breakthrough. By analyzing data from 4 wells, this study demonstrates that water-gas ratio trends and transient pressure behaviors can accurately classify fluid boundary geometries. Driven by localized reservoir heterogeneities and declining pressures, these dynamics accelerate water encroachment. This process culminates in water breakthrough, as confirmed by diagnostic log-log signatures of water channeling and water coning late channeling. The established method provides robust diagnostics for identifying produced water sources and improving predictive accuracy, directly guiding effective well management and field development strategies.]]>
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