Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS)
Vol. 9 No. 3 (2026): Volume 09 Issue 03 (September 2026)

Application of Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression to Under-Five Diarrhea Cases in East Java

Nurul Aulya Bakri (Universitas Negeri Makassar)
Suwardi Annas (Universitas Negeri Makassar)
Aswi Aswi (Universitas Negeri Makassar)



Article Info

Publish Date
17 Sep 2026

Abstract

Under-five diarrhea remains an important indicator of environmental health conditions. In East Java Province, Indonesia, the incidence varies across districts and over time, indicating spatial dependence and temporal dynamics. This study aims to analyse spatial–temporal variation and examine the influence of environmental, health, and sociodemographic factors using the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) approach. Spatial panel data from 38 districts/cities during 2019–2023 were analysed, including variables on exclusive breastfeeding, sanitation, vitamin A, immunisation, drinking water facilities, and population density. Moran’s I and heterogeneity tests were applied, followed by GTWR estimation using adaptive space–time weighting. The results reveal significant spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity, with variable effects differing across regions and periods. Vitamin A supplementation and population density show consistent positive associations, while safe drinking water exhibits a protective effect. GTWR outperforms multiple linear regression, as indicated by lower AIC and higher R² values. In conclusion, GTWR provides a more accurate representation of diarrhea patterns. It is recommended that interventions be tailored to local conditions by considering spatial and temporal variations.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

JMATHCOS

Publisher

Subject

Mathematics

Description

Fokus yang didasarkan tidak hanya untuk penelitian dan juga teori-teori pengetahuan yang tidak menerbitkan plagiarism. Ruang lingkup jurnal ini adalah teori matematika, matematika terapan, program perhitungan, perhitungan matematika, statistik, dan statistik ...