Under-five diarrhea remains an important indicator of environmental health conditions. In East Java Province, Indonesia, the incidence varies across districts and over time, indicating spatial dependence and temporal dynamics. This study aims to analyse spatial–temporal variation and examine the influence of environmental, health, and sociodemographic factors using the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) approach. Spatial panel data from 38 districts/cities during 2019–2023 were analysed, including variables on exclusive breastfeeding, sanitation, vitamin A, immunisation, drinking water facilities, and population density. Moran’s I and heterogeneity tests were applied, followed by GTWR estimation using adaptive space–time weighting. The results reveal significant spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity, with variable effects differing across regions and periods. Vitamin A supplementation and population density show consistent positive associations, while safe drinking water exhibits a protective effect. GTWR outperforms multiple linear regression, as indicated by lower AIC and higher R² values. In conclusion, GTWR provides a more accurate representation of diarrhea patterns. It is recommended that interventions be tailored to local conditions by considering spatial and temporal variations.
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