<![CDATA[Waste management at the regency level is determined not only by the availability of regulations and infrastructure but also by the alignment among waste generation, transport capacity, processing capacity, and policy targets. This study evaluated the technical capacity gap in the waste management system of Musi Rawas Regency against the 2025 Regional Waste Management Policy and Strategy (Jakstrada) targets using a quantitative evaluative approach based on secondary data. Population data for 2020–2025 were used to estimate waste generation through sensitivity analysis using coefficients of 0.30, 0.35, and 0.40 kg/capita/day. The estimates were then compared with the vehicle fleet inventory, daily collection trips, 3R Waste Processing Facilities (TPS 3R), human resources, service routes, and the Jakstrada targets of 30% waste reduction and 70% waste handling. The population increased from 395,570 in 2020 to 415,744 in 2025. Under the moderate scenario, waste generation in 2025 was estimated at 145.51 t/day. The nominal capacity of seven active dump trucks completing a total of eight trips per day was 40 t/day, equivalent to 27.49% of the estimated waste generation and only 39.27% of the capacity required to meet the 70% handling target. This resulted in a nominal capacity gap of 61.86 t/day. Three of the four TPS 3R units were active, but their recorded throughput was only approximately 0.79 t/day, compared with an active design capacity of 4 t/day. The results indicated that regulatory readiness had not yet been fully supported by adequate technical capacity and facility utilization. Based on the identified gaps, the most appropriate policy measures included strengthening tonnage-based operational records, optimizing collection routes and trip frequencies, revitalizing TPS 3R facilities, integrating waste banks into the waste management system, expanding decentralized organic waste treatment, and upgrading final disposal standards.]]>
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