<![CDATA[Red chili is one of the commodities that plays an important role in food security and the economy for the community in Humbang Hasundutan Regency, North Sumatra. However, the productivity of red chili in the region is still below the provincial average. This is caused by production fluctuations, pest attacks, climate conditions, and the imbalance between the availability of red chili and its demand. This study aims to analyze the behavior that occurs in the red chili supply chain and to develop evaluation alternatives through the development of a dynamic system model simulation. The scope of the research includes the collection of primary data through interviews with supply chain actors and secondary data from relevant institutions, as well as the construction of a simulation model using Vensim PLE software for the 2010–2024 period to observe supply chain behavior. The simulation results indicate that, under the assumptions used, organic red chili land intensification could raise productivity from 3.83 tons/ha to about 9.96 tons/ha (an increase of roughly 2.6 times) compared to production using regular planting seeds. However, two of the five model variables (red chili production and red chili productivity) did not fully satisfy the E1 < 5% validation criterion (E1 = 5.73% and 5.27%, respectively), so this scenario result should be interpreted with corresponding caution; model limitations and validation performance are discussed further in the Methodology and Conclusion sections.]]>
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