This study examines how carbon intensity affects stock return and volatility, also how green finance moderates these relationships using 470 observations from 75 Indonesian listed firms from 2016–2024. Using panel data regression with two-way clustered standard errors, the study discovers that carbon intensity positively affects both outcomes, indicating a carbon-risk premium and greater market uncertainty. Green finance negatively affects stock return, but not volatility. However,its positive interaction with carbon intensity strengthens both effects. Coarsened Exact Matching results confirm these findings after balancing observable firm characteristics. Overall, the results demonstrate that environmental expenditure carries dual market implications, serving as an environmental commitment while also signaling transition, compliance, and remediation burdens.
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