Unnes Journal of Public Health
Vol. 15 No. 2 (2026)

Spatio-Temporal Dynamics and the Influence of Socio-Economic Factors on the Crude Incidence Rate of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in South Sulawesi (2020-2023)

Hedi Kuswanto (Department of Public Health and Community Science, Faculty of Medicine, Hasanuddin University)
Andi Alfian Zainuddin (Department of Public Health and Community Science, Faculty of Medicine, Hasanuddin University)
Ainan Raena Nas (Department of Public Health and Community Science, Faculty of Medicine, Hasanuddin University)
Nurul Qalby (Department of Public Health and Community Science, Faculty of Medicine, Hasanuddin University)
Zakiah (Department of Public Health and Community Science, Faculty of Medicine, Hasanuddin University)
Halik Malik (BPJS Kesehatan)
Dedy Setyawan (BPJS Kesehatan)
Anugrah Nur Isnaeni Rahman (Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Hasanuddin University)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Sep 2026

Abstract

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (type 2 DM) is a major public health problem in Indonesia. In South Sulawesi, the Crude Incidence Rate (CIR) exhibits substantial variation across district and cities, potentially reflecting underlying socioeconomic heterogeneity. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal distribution of type 2 DM CIR from 2020 to 2023 and examined its socioeconomic determinants. An ecological panel study was conducted using secondary data on type 2 DM CIR and ten socioeconomic indicators across all 24 districts and cities in South Sulawesi Province. Spatio-temporal relationships were examined using Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR), complemented by descriptive and spatial statistical analyses. The CIR increased significantly from 2020 to 2023, with Palopo City recording the highest burden. Global Moran’s I showed no significant spatial autocorrelation. Mean Years of Schooling (r = 0.740–0.789), Open Unemployment Rate (r = 0.644–0.693), Human Development Index (r = 0.682–0.749), and Per Capita Expenditure (r = 0.542–0.612; p < 0.01) were consistently significant predictors. GTWR confirmed their spatio-temporal influence across districts and cities in South Sulawesi. Socioeconomic factors significantly shape the spatio-temporal variation of type 2 DM burden in South Sulawesi, highlighting the need for targeted community-based interventions and inclusive socioeconomic policies to reduce disease burden.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

ujph

Publisher

Subject

Public Health

Description

Unnes Journal of Public Health contains articles about health epidemiology, biostatistics health, health administration, public health nutrition, environmental health, occupational health and safety, health promotion, reproductive health, maternal and child health, and other related articles health. ...