Applying Prunckun’s Intelligence Strategy Model in Threat Analysis and Export Market Product Development Strategies in Response To U.S. Import Tariffs on Indonesia

Avian Airlangga (Sekolah Tinggi Intelijen Negara)
Steph Subanidja (Sekolah Tinggi Intelijen Negara)
Diah Setyorini Gunawan (Sekolah Tinggi Intelijen Negara)

Security Intelligence Terrorism Journal (SITJ)
Vol. 3 No. 3 (2026)

This study analyzes the impact of the United States’ import tariff increase policy on Indonesia’s national interests, with the objectives of assessing the level of threat using Prunckun’s Threat Theory and formulating product and export market development strategies based on economic intelligence through the Ansoff Matrix. This research employs a qualitative method utilizing in-depth interviews, focus group discussions, and secondary data on Indonesia–US export–import activities for the 2020–2024 period, which are analyzed through stages of data reduction, data presentation, and validation. The findings indicate that the threat coefficient falls into the high category due to the combination of the United States’ protectionist intent and its strong economic, financial, and regulatory capacities, thereby necessitating a multi-layered strategy encompassing the strengthening of market penetration in the US, market development, innovation of value-added and green-standard products, and long-term diversification, all supported by an economic intelligence–based early detection and early warning system.