<![CDATA[One of the leading commodities contributing to exports and the largest surplus in the agricultural sector is tea. However, the trend of Indonesia's tea export volume shows a decline. Therefore, the volume of Indonesian tea exports in the next few years is necessary to be predicted in order to make careful planning related to Indonesian tea exports. The export trend can be predicted using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The data used is secondary data of time series monthly export volume from January 2014 to October 2020 published by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). In general, Indonesia's tea export volume is experiencing a downward trend. However, based on the type, there was an increase in the export volume of bulk green tea (packs exceeding 3kg) and packaged black tea (packs not exceeding 3kg) which were projected by using ARIMA (0,1,1). The contribution to the export volume of tea does not exceed 30% of the total, but has a large enough potential so that it can be used as a mainstay in the future. Furthermore, the export volume of packaged green tea was projected using ARIMA (0.1.1) (1.0.0) [12] and bulk black tea was projected using ARIMA (1,1,2) (1,0,0) [12] . The projection shows a decline in export volume, both packaged green tea and bulk black tea, and tends to stagnate. In fact, bulk black tea is the mainstay of Indonesian tea exports. Therefore, there needs to be innovation in bulk black tea exports if government want to improve the volume of Indonesian tea exports. In addition, it is known that there are seasonal factors in forecasting the export volume of packaged green tea and bulk black tea. This needs to be investigated further in order to find other factors that affect Indonesia's export volume.]]>
Copyrights © 2021
