Spatial Analysis of Flood-Prone Areas in Padang Terap, Kedah: Integrating Spatial Autocorrelation and Optimized Hotspot Analysis

Azizul Ahmad (Centre for Spatially Integrated Digital Humanities (CSIDH), Faculty of Social Sciences & Humanities (FSSH), Universiti Malaysia Sarawak (UNIMAS), Datuk Mohammad Musa Road, 94300 Kota Samarahan, Sarawak)
Mohd Zulhafiz Said (Faculty of Human Ecology, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 UPM Serdang, Selangor)
Salfarina Abdul Gapor (School of Business and Social Sciences, Albukhary International University, Jalan Tun Abdul Razak, 05200, Alor Setar, Kedah)
Lindah Roziani Jamru (Geographic Section, Faculty Social Sciences & Humanities, Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS), 88400 Kota Kinabalu, Sabah)
Norita Jubit (Borneo Institute for Indigenous Studies (BorIIS), Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS), 88400 Kota Kinabalu, Sabah)
Sumayyah Aimi Mohd Najib (Faculty of Human Sciences, Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris (UPSI), 35900 Tanjung Malim, Perak)
Tarmiji Masron (Centre for Spatially Integrated Digital Humanities (CSIDH), Faculty of Social Sciences & Humanities (FSSH), Universiti Malaysia Sarawak (UNIMAS), Datuk Mohammad Musa Road, 94300 Kota Samarahan, Sarawak)
Nur Afiqah Ariffin (HS Innovators Sdn Bhd, No. 5U-1A-04, Level 1, Block 5, Pusat Daerah Seksyen 6, Jalan Cenderawasih 6/7, Seksyen 6, 40000 Shah Alam, Selangor)
Yaniza Shaira Zakaria (Institute of Oceanography and Environment (INOS), Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030 Kuala Nerus, Terengganu)

Forum Geografi
Vol. 40 No. 1 (2026): April 2026

Flooding increasingly threatens socio-economic resilience in Malaysia, particularly in vulnerable districts such as Padang Terap, Kedah. Using a GIS-based framework integrating Spatial Autocorrelation (Moran’s I) and Optimized Hotspot Analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*), this study quantifies spatial clustering of flood-prone areas across four inundation levels (0.3 m–3.7 m). Results reveal intensifying positive spatial autocorrelation with rising flood depths, reflecting hydrological connectivity and topographic controls. Hotspots are consistently concentrated in Belimbing Kanan, Belimbing Kiri, and Padang Temak, emphasizing severe spatial heterogeneity in flood risk distribution. These findings demonstrate that flood hazards are not randomly dispersed but spatially structured, necessitating geographically targeted risk mitigation strategies. Incorporating hotspot insights into planning can optimize resource allocation, strengthen adaptive capacity, and inform flood-resilient urban development. This research advocates for integrating fine-scale spatial analyses into national disaster frameworks to enhance Malaysia’s climate resilience agenda. Future work should embed socio-economic vulnerability metrics and spatiotemporal models to refine flood risk governance and promote equitable, anticipatory disaster management.