<![CDATA[Introduction: Dengue transmission in Surabaya, Indonesia, varies across urban villages, but its spatial relationship with vector-control performance remains insufficiently understood. This study examined dengue incidence, the Larvae-Free Index (LFI), and their bivariate spatial association. Methods: This spatial ecological study analysed annual confirmed dengue cases and LFI data from all 154 urban villages in Surabaya during 2020–2025, obtained from the Surabaya City Health Office. Incidence was calculated per 10,000 population. Multiplicative seasonal decomposition characterised monthly case patterns. Global Moran’s I and Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) assessed spatial clustering, while Bivariate Moran’s I and Bivariate LISA (BiLISA) examined associations between local dengue incidence and neighbouring LFI values. Results and Discussion: Dengue incidence clustered significantly in five of six years (I = 0.0784–0.2727), except 2024 (I = 0.0280; p = 0.222). LFI clustered significantly every year (I = 0.2190–0.3087; p = 0.001). Bivariate Moran’s I was negative in five years and significant in 2020 (−0.0805; p = 0.022), 2021 (−0.0875; p = 0.019), and 2025 (−0.1046; p = 0.003), indicating spatial associations between higher incidence and lower neighbouring LFI. In 2025, LISA identified 10 High–High and 15 Low–Low dengue clusters. BiLISA identified High–Low villages annually, with Ujung and Pegirian recurring most frequently. Conclusion: Dengue incidence and LFI exhibited spatial clustering, with significant inverse spatial associations in three years. LFI should complement, rather than replace, dengue surveillance when identifying priority areas for targeted vector control.]]>
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