This study is motivated by the high prevalence of academic stress and burnout among postgraduate students and the scarcity of research integrating tawakal (Islamic reliance on God) and social support as parallel antecedents in a single antecedent-mediation model. It examines academic stress as a mediator of the effects of tawakal and social support on academic burnout among graduate students. A quantitative, cross-sectional design involved 236 master's students at a state university in Bogor, Indonesia, recruited through purposive sampling. Data were collected using a self-developed Academic Stress Scale, the Maslach Burnout Inventory-Student Survey (MBI-SS), the Tawakkul Scale, and the Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support (MSPSS), and analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) with SmartPLS 4.0, including reconceptualization of academic stress as a higher-order construct through a Two-Stage Approach. Academic stress was a dominant predictor of academic burnout (β = 0.736; p < 0.001; R² = 0.541). Tawakal significantly and negatively predicted academic stress (β = −0.156; p = 0.039), and its effect on academic burnout was fully mediated by academic stress based on the model specification (full mediation by design), whereas social support was not significant (p = 0.142). These findings confirm tawakal's position as an antecedent of academic stress, contribute theoretically to Islamic psychology and methodologically to higher-order construct modeling of psychospiritual variables, and support strengthening tawakal as a preventive strategy in mental health programs for Muslim graduate students.
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