<![CDATA[The rapid decline of Indonesia’s middle class poses a serious threat to macroeconomic stability. However, the factors driving this downward mobility at the household level remain underexplored. This study examines the socioeconomic drivers of middle-class welfare decline in Jambi Province and proposes targeted micro-level fiscal interventions. Using 2023-2024 SUSENAS microdata, the study employs a binary logistic regression to identify factors influencing welfare transitions, complemented by qualitative analysis in NVivo to formulate policy strategies. The empirical results indicate that approximately half of middle-class households experienced downward mobility. Downward mobility is significantly associated with informal-sector employment, larger household sizes, and female-headed households, whereas higher education and tertiary-sector employment provide protective effects. To address these structural vulnerabilities, this study contributes to the literature by linking household-level empirical analysis with micro-fiscal policy design. We propose targeted interventions, such as progressive micro-tax regimes, sector-specific subsidies, and conditional social transfers tailored to informal workers and large households. Future research should advance this framework by incorporating longitudinal panel data and developing dynamic policy simulation models to evaluate the long-term efficacy of these micro-fiscal instruments.]]>
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