JURIKOM (Jurnal Riset Komputer)
Vol. 13 No. 5 (2026): Oktober 2026

Building Energy Consumption Prediction Using Grid Search-Optimized XGBoost: A Comparative Evaluation with Random Forest on Synthetic Data

Adinda Putri Pratiwi (Universitas Muhammadiyah Kalimantan Timur)
Didi Susilo Budi Utomo (Politeknik Negeri Samarinda)
Rihartanto Rihartanto (Politeknik Negeri Samarinda)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 Oct 2026

Abstract

The rising energy demands of buildings necessitate systems for efficient energy usage. Consequently, accurate prediction methods are required to assist in energy planning, control, and optimization. This study aims to predict energy consumption using the XGBoost algorithm, with parameter optimization performed via Grid Search. Additionally, Random Forest is employed as a benchmark and comparative method, and feature importance analysis is conducted to identify the variables that most significantly influence energy consumption. The dataset used is a synthetic dataset obtained from Kaggle. The dataset simulates environmental conditions and energy use in buildings. The results indicate that the best-performing model is the parameter-optimized XGBoost, which outperformed both Random Forest and the default XGBoost model. Specifically, the optimized XGBoost model achieved an MAE of 4.0029 ± 0.0127, an RMSE of 4.9352 ± 0.0104, and an R² of 0.6026 ± 0.0017. Feature importance analysis identified temperature as the most important feature for predicting energy consumption in the evaluated model. However, because the study is using synthetic data rather than real data from actual building measurements, the findings may not fully represent real-world buildings and should not be directly generalized without further validation. Further evaluation using real-world building energy consumption data is necessary to assess the practical applicability of the approach.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jurikom

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Electrical & Electronics Engineering

Description

JURIKOM (Jurnal Riset Komputer) membahas ilmu dibidang Informatika, Sistem Informasi, Manajemen Informatika, DSS, AI, ES, Jaringan, sebagai wadah dalam menuangkan hasil penelitian baik secara konseptual maupun teknis yang berkaitan dengan Teknologi Informatika dan Komputer. Topik utama yang ...