VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application on Teaching and Research
Vol. 8 No. 02 (2026)

Implementation of the Hierarchial Clustering Method to Predict the Number of Domestic Tourist Trips in East Java Province

Dara Agustina (Institut Teknologi dan Bisnis STIKOM Bali)
Muayyad (Polytechnic of Bali)



Article Info

Publish Date
09 Sep 2026

Abstract

Indonesian tourism represents a wealth of natural and cultural assets that play a vital role in boosting state revenue. Data from Statistics Indonesia indicates a shift in the travel patterns of domestic tourists following the COVID-19 pandemic in 2022. East Java Province emerged as the primary destination for domestic travelers within Java. The province comprises 29 Regencies and 9 Cities, each offering its own unique tourism appeal. In this study, the travel patterns of domestic tourists across these Regencies and Cities were categorized into three clusters. Subsequently, ARIMA modeling was employed to forecast the volume of domestic tourist trips in East Java for each cluster. This information provides an estimate of future domestic travel activity in the Province, thereby assisting the government in considering improvements to accessibility and tourism management, as well as the development of new tourism offerings. The ultimate goal is to maintain the quality of the tourism sector and foster a continued desire among tourists to revisit the region.

Copyrights © 2026






Journal Info

Abbrev

variansi

Publisher

Subject

Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Mathematics

Description

VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its application on Teaching and Research memuat tulisan hasil penelitian dan kajian pustaka (reviews) dalam bidang ilmu dasar ataupun terapan dan pembelajaran dari bidang Statistika dan Aplikasinya dalam pembelajaran dan riset berupa hasil penelitian dan kajian ...