VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application on Teaching and Research
Vol. 8 No. 02 (2026)

Comparison of Methods Fuzzy Time Series Chen And Fuzzy Time Series Cheng On the Closing Price Forecast of PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) Shares

Maslahatul Khaerat (Universitas Negeri Makassar)
Muhammad Fahmuddin S (Universitas Negeri Makassar)
Zakiyah Mar’ah (Universitas Negeri Makassar)



Article Info

Publish Date
21 Oct 2026

Abstract

Stock price forecasting is an important aspect in financial market analysis because it can support investors in making investment decisions. This study aims to forecast the closing price of PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) shares and compare the accuracy between the Chen and Cheng Fuzzy Time Series methods. The data used are the weekly closing prices of BBCA shares for the period January 2014 to December 2024 with a total of 566 data. The forecasting process is carried out through the stages of fuzzification, formation of fuzzy logical relationships (FLR), grouping FLRs into fuzzy logical relationship groups (FLRG), and defuzzification. Accuracy evaluation is carried out using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results show that the Chen Fuzzy Time Series method produces a prediction of BBCA's closing price in the first week of January 2025 of Rp9,440.75 with a MAPE value of 6.32%, while the Cheng Fuzzy Time Series method produces a prediction of Rp9,441 with a MAPE value of 5.74%. With a smaller MAPE value, the Cheng method is proven to be more accurate than the Chen method in predicting BBCA's closing price. This shows that giving weights to fuzzy relations in Cheng's method is able to increase the accuracy of forecasting results.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

variansi

Publisher

Subject

Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Mathematics

Description

VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its application on Teaching and Research memuat tulisan hasil penelitian dan kajian pustaka (reviews) dalam bidang ilmu dasar ataupun terapan dan pembelajaran dari bidang Statistika dan Aplikasinya dalam pembelajaran dan riset berupa hasil penelitian dan kajian ...