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INDONESIA
Emerging Science Journal
Published by Ital Publication
ISSN : 26109182     EISSN : -     DOI : -
Core Subject : Social,
Emerging Science Journal is not limited to a specific aspect of science and engineering but is instead devoted to a wide range of subfields in the engineering and sciences. While it encourages a broad spectrum of contribution in the engineering and sciences. Articles of interdisciplinary nature are particularly welcome.
Arjuna Subject : -
Articles 14 Documents
Search results for , issue "Vol 5, No 5 (2021): October" : 14 Documents clear
Bayesian Approaches for Poisson Distribution Parameter Estimation Yadpirun Supharakonsakun
Emerging Science Journal Vol 5, No 5 (2021): October
Publisher : Ital Publication

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.28991/esj-2021-01310

Abstract

The Bayesian approach, a non-classical estimation technique, is very widely used in statistical inference for real world situations. The parameter is considered to be a random variable, and knowledge of the prior distribution is used to update the parameter estimation. Herein, two Bayesian approaches for Poisson parameter estimation by deriving the posterior distribution under the squared error loss or quadratic loss functions are proposed. Their performances were compared with frequentist (maximum likelihood estimator) and Empirical Bayes approaches through Monte Carlo simulations. The mean square error was used as the test criterion for comparing the methods for point estimation; the smallest value indicates the best performing method with the estimated parameter value closest to the true parameter value. Coverage Probabilities (CPs) and average lengths (ALs) were obtained to evaluate the performances of the methods for constructing confidence intervals. The results reveal that the Bayesian approaches were excellent for point estimation when the true parameter value was small (0.5, 1 and 2). In the credible interval comparison, these methods obtained CP values close to the nominal 0.95 confidence level and the smallest ALs for large sample sizes (50 and 100), when the true parameter value was small (0.5, 1 and 2). Doi: 10.28991/esj-2021-01310 Full Text: PDF
Cluster Data Analysis with a Fuzzy Equivalence Relation to Substantiate a Medical Diagnosis Abas Hasanovich Lampezhev; Elena Yur`evna Linskaya; Aslan Adal`bievich Tatarkanov; Islam Alexandrovich Alexandrov
Emerging Science Journal Vol 5, No 5 (2021): October
Publisher : Ital Publication

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.28991/esj-2021-01305

Abstract

This study aims to develop a methodology for the justification of medical diagnostic decisions based on the clustering of large volumes of statistical information stored in decision support systems. This aim is relevant since the analyzed medical data are often incomplete and inaccurate, negatively affecting the correctness of medical diagnosis and the subsequent choice of the most effective treatment actions. Clustering is an effective mathematical tool for selecting useful information under conditions of initial data uncertainty. The analysis showed that the most appropriate algorithm to solve the problem is based on fuzzy clustering and fuzzy equivalence relation. The methods of the present study are based on the use of this algorithm forming the technique of analyzing large volumes of medical data due to prepare a rationale for making medical diagnostic decisions. The proposed methodology involves the sequential implementation of the following procedures: preliminary data preparation, selecting the purpose of cluster data analysis, determining the form of results presentation, data normalization, selection of criteria for assessing the quality of the solution, application of fuzzy data clustering, evaluation of the sample, results and their use in further work. Fuzzy clustering quality evaluation criteria include partition coefficient, entropy separation criterion, separation efficiency ratio, and cluster power criterion. The novelty of the results of this article is related to the fact that the proposed methodology makes it possible to work with clusters of arbitrary shape and missing centers, which is impossible when using universal algorithms. Doi: 10.28991/esj-2021-01305 Full Text: PDF
GA-Optimized Multivariate CNN-LSTM Model for Predicting Multi-channel Mobility in the COVID-19 Pandemic Harya Widiputra
Emerging Science Journal Vol 5, No 5 (2021): October
Publisher : Ital Publication

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.28991/esj-2021-01300

Abstract

The primary factor that contributes to the transmission of COVID-19 infection is human mobility. Positive instances added on a daily basis have a substantial positive association with the pace of human mobility, and the reverse is true. Thus, having the ability to predict human mobility trend during a pandemic is critical for policymakers to help in decreasing the rate of transmission in the future. In this regard, one approach that is commonly used for time-series data prediction is to build an ensemble with the aim of getting the best performance. However, building an ensemble often causes the performance of the model to decrease, due to the increasing number of parameters that are not being optimized properly. Consequently, the purpose of this study is to develop and evaluate a deep learning ensemble model, which is optimized using a genetic algorithm (GA) that incorporates a convolutional neural network (CNN) and a long short-term memory (LSTM). A CNN is used to conduct feature extraction from mobility time-series data, while an LSTM is used to do mobility prediction. The parameters of both layers are adjusted using GA. As a result of the experiments conducted with data from the Google Community Mobility Reports in Indonesia that ranges from the beginning of February 2020 to the end of December 2020, the GA-Optimized Multivariate CNN-LSTM ensemble outperforms stand-alone CNN and LSTM models, as well as the non-optimized CNN-LSTM model, in terms of predicting human movement in the future. This may be useful in assisting policymakers in anticipating future human mobility trends. Doi: 10.28991/esj-2021-01300 Full Text: PDF
Development and Prototyping of Jet Systems for Advanced Turbomachinery with Mesh Rotor Yuri Appolonievich Sazonov; Mikhail Albertovich Mokhov; Inna Vladimirovna Gryaznova; Victoria Vasilievna Voronova; Khoren Arturovich Tumanyan; Mikhail Alexandrovich Frankov; Nikolay Nikolaevich Balaka
Emerging Science Journal Vol 5, No 5 (2021): October
Publisher : Ital Publication

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.28991/esj-2021-01311

Abstract

This article presents the research results that aim to develop promising mesh turbomachines equipped with jet control systems. The turbomachines operating in difficult conditions in oil and gas production are mainly considered. At the same time, some research results can be used in other production branches, including power engineering and transport. Three-dimensional models for computer simulation of net turbines and jet control systems were developed. Prototypes and micromodels were created to test the performance of mesh turbines and jet control systems using additive technologies. A methodological approach is proposed to create a classification of jet control systems considering their design and technological features. In the course of numerical experiments, the extreme conditions of fluid and gas outflow through a nozzle equipped with a velocity vector control system, in the control range of adjustment of the velocity vector deflection angle from + 90o to -90o within a geometric hemisphere, have been considered for the first time. It was also shown that when using a dual-channel nozzle, there are possibilities to adjust the velocity vector angle (thrust vector) in the range of + 180o to -180owithin the geometric sphere. Compared with the known variants, the control range of the velocity vector angle is increased by nine times. These calculated data are presented in addition to the previously published results of physical laboratory experiments. Preliminary results of numerical experiments show the possibility of creating a new theory in the field of mesh turbines and jet systems. Patents support the novelty of the developed technical solutions. Doi: 10.28991/esj-2021-01311 Full Text: PDF

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