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Economics and Finance in Indonesia
Published by Universitas Indonesia
ISSN : 0126155X     EISSN : 24429260     DOI : 10.47291
Core Subject : Economy,
Economics, Econometrics & Finance
EFI mainly covers original idea related to the Economics and Finance in Indonesia. Published articles can be either theoretical, empirical, or in between of those two polar variants.
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Articles 5 Documents
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Search results for , issue "Volume 61, Number 2, August 2015" : 5 Documents clear
"Does Inflation Targeting Framework Make a Significant Difference in Lowering Price Level?” What is Its Implication to Indonesia’s Inflation Rate? Faisal Rachman
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Volume 61, Number 2, August 2015
Publisher : Institute for Economic and Social Research

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (489.212 KB) | DOI: 10.47291/efi.v61i2.508

Abstract

AbstractIn the last two decades many countries have been starting to employ Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF) as their main monetary policy framework. This is done to achieve an objective of anchoring public expectation on inflation which in the end will steer the price level movement towards ITF’s ultimate target of relatively low and stable inflation rate. By conducting Difference-in-Difference method on panel data consisting of five countries implementing ITF since 2001 and twenty-one selected non-ITF countries for period 1990-2010, it is statistically proved that ITF adoption has a significant effect on inflation. In case of Indonesia, through Structural Break approach, the implementation of ITF since 2005 is also proved able to lower and stabilize inflation rate.Abstrak Dalam dua dekade terakhir ini banyak negara yang telah mulai menggunakan Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF) sebagai kerangka utama kebijakan moneter mereka. Hal ini dilakukan guna mencapai tujuan pengendalian ekspektasi publik yang pada akhirnya akan mengendalikan pergerakan tingkat harga relatif rendah and stabil. Dengan menggunakan metode Difference-in-Difference pada data panel, yang terdiri dari lima negara yang telah mengimplementasikan ITF sejak tahun 2001 dan dua puluh satu negara bukan pengguna ITF, untuk periode 1990-2010, disimpulkan bahwa ITF memiliki dampak signifikan pada tingkat inflasi. Untuk kasus Indonesia yang telah mengimplementasikan ITF sejak tahun 2005, melalui metode Structural Break disimpulkan hasil yang sama, yaitu tingkatan harga yang rendah dan stabil.
Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Indonesia Firman Mochtar; Yoga Affandi
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Volume 61, Number 2, August 2015
Publisher : Institute for Economic and Social Research

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (868.443 KB) | DOI: 10.47291/efi.v61i2.504

Abstract

We analyze the role of both permanent and temporary factors in affecting the Indonesian current account and real exchange dynamics before and after 2000. Adopting Lee and Chinn (1998; 2006) approach as well as Chinn et al. (2007), two results stand out. First, we confirm that the behavior of the real exchange rate has altered since 2000. Identifications show that permanent shocks are the primary causes for the movement of the real exchange rate after 2000, while in the period before 2000, the Indonesian real exchange rate changes are characterized by greater dominance of temporary shocks. The apparent change in the real exchange rate behavior may be strongly justified by the implementation of free-floating exchange rate system since August 1997. Second, the shift of the real exchange rate behavior after 2000 does not necessarily affect the current account dynamics. Empirical evidence confirms that the variance of current account post 2000 remains largely due to temporary shocks. Albeit having increasing influence, permanent shocks have insignificant effect in explaining fluctuations of the current account. In this sense, the current account surplus after 2000 is attributed largely to nominal variables such as price increase, while the impact of productivity improvement is still limited.Keywords: Current Account; Real Exchange Rate; Asian Crises 1997/1998AbstrakKami menganalisa peranan faktor permanen dan temporer dalam memengaruhi neraca berjalan dan dinamika nilai tukar mata uang riil Indonesia sebelum dan setelah tahun 2000. Mengadopsi pendekatan Lee dan Chinn (1998; 2006) serta Chinn et al. (2007), telah diperoleh dua kesimpulan. Pertama, kami mengonfirmasi bahwa pola nilai tukar mata uang riil telah berubah sejak tahun 2000. Identifikasi menunjukkan bahwa shock permanen adalah penyebab utama pergerakan nilai tukar mata uang riil setelah tahun 2000, sedangkan di periode sebelum tahun 2000 perubahan nilai tukar mata uang riil dicirikan oleh dominansi shock temporer. Perubahan pola nilai tukar mata uang tersebut dapat berakar dari penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas sejak Agustus 1997. Kedua, perubahan pola nilai tukar mata uang setelah tahun 2000 tidak serta merta memengaruhi dinamika neraca berjalan. Bukti empiris mengonfirmasi bahwa variansi neraca berjalan setelah tahun 2000 tetap disebabkan utamanya oleh shock temporer. Meskipun menunjukkan peningkatan pengaruh, shock permanen memiliki pengaruh yang tidak signifikan dalam menjelaskan fluktuasi neraca berjalan. Atau dalam kata lain, surplus neraca berjalan setelah tahun 2000 dapat diatribusikan kepada variabel nominal seperti kenaikan harga, sedangkan pengaruh peningkatan produktivitas masih cenderung terbatas.Kata kunci: Neraca Transaksi Berjalan; Nilai Tukar Riil; Krisis Asia 1997/1998JEL classifications: F31; F41
Rural Electrification Program in Indonesia: Comparing SEHEN and SHS Program Maxensius Tri Sambodo
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Volume 61, Number 2, August 2015
Publisher : Institute for Economic and Social Research

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (134.98 KB) | DOI: 10.47291/efi.v61i2.505

Abstract

AbstractIn 2014, the Indonesian government has targets to obtain 80% of electrification ratio and 98.9% of rural electrification ratio. Extending the grid and off-grid connection has been done to obtain the targets. This paper aims to compare two main programs on rural electrification namely Super Extra Energy Saving (Super Ekstra Hemat Energi, SEHEN) that is belong to PLN (state owned company in electricity) and the Solar Home System (SHS) that is financed by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR). Indonesia has started the rural electrification program in the late 1950s, but how to provide electricity in a sustainable ways both organizationally and institutionally still become a big challenge. The experiences from East Nusa Tenggara provinces showed that both SEHEN and SHS can instantly improve electrification ratio, but government needs to synchronize the technical, administrative, and financial aspect from the two programs. Without any improvements in designing the program, we argue that the existing program is not sustainable.Keywords: Electrification Ratio; Rural Electrification; SustainabilityAbstrakTahun 2014, Pemerintah Indonesia menetapkan target pencapaian rasio elektrifikasi sebesar 80% dan rasio elektifikasi perdesaan sebesar 98.9%. Perpanjangan jaringan grid dan off-grid telah dilakukan sepagai upaya pencapaian target. Tulisan ini bertujuan membandingkan dua program elktifikasi perdesaan yang utama, yaitu Super Ekstra Hemat Energi (SEHEN) yang dimiliki PLN (Badan Usaha Milik Negara di bidang kelistrikan) dan Solar Home System (SHS) yang didanai Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral. Indonesia telah memulai program elektrifikasi perdesaan sejak akhir 1950an,namun masih menghadapi tantangan dalam menemukan cara elektrifikasi yang berkesinambungan secara organisasional maupun institusional. Pengalaman dari Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur menunjukkan bahwa SEHEN maupun SHS dapat meningkatkan rasio elektrifikasi secara signifikan, namun pemerintah masih harus menyelaraskan aspek teknis, administratif, dan keuangan dari kedua program. Tanpa pembenahan dari sisi rancangan, kami berpendapat bahwa program yang telah ada tidak ada bertahan.Kata kunci: Rasio Elektrifikasi; Listrik Perdesaan; KeberlanjutanJEL classifications: O10; Q40
Improving Human Capital through Better Education to Support Indonesia’s Economic Development Latif Adam; Siwage Dharma Negara
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Volume 61, Number 2, August 2015
Publisher : Institute for Economic and Social Research

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (224.456 KB) | DOI: 10.47291/efi.v61i2.506

Abstract

AbstractDespite Indonesia’s impressive economic growth, it still lags behind other countries with a similar income level in terms of the quality of its human capital. This paper argues that one key factor explaining this low quality of human capital relates to the lack of focus and clear strategies to develop its education system. This paper attempts to assess Indonesia’s current state of human capital development with particular focus on its education sector. In order to benefit from its demographic bonus, Indonesia needs to to improve its current education and skill training system. Better education and skill training system will support the country’s effort to reduce poverty and youth unemployment. The effectiveness of public spending in education should be improved to raise the quality of education. Indonesia needs to integrate its human capital development plan with its economic master plan.Keywords: Human Capital; Poverty; Unemployment; Education; DevelopmentAbstrakMeskipun mencatatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang mengagumkan, kualitas sumber daya manusia Indonesia masih tertinggal dibandingkan negara lain dengan tingkat penghasilan setara. Tulisan ini berpendapat bahwa faktor kunci yang menjelaskan rendahnya kualitas sumber daya manusia berhubungan dengan ketiadaan strategi yang terfokus dan jelas untuk mengembangkan sistem pendidikan Indonesia. Tulisan ini menilai kondisi kekinian dari pengembangan sumber daya manusia Indonesia dengan fokus khusus pada sektor pendidikan. Agar dapat mengoptimalkan manfaat dari bonus demografi, Indonesia perlu membenahi sistem pendidikan dan pelatihan keterampilan. Sistem pendidikan dan pelatihan keterampilan yang lebih baik akan menunjang upaya pengentasan kemiskinan dan pengurangan pengangguran muda. Efektivitas pengeluaran pemerintah di sektor pendidikan perlu ditingkatkan guna meningkatkan kualitas pendidikan. Indonesia perlu mengintegrasikan rencana pembangunan sumber daya manusia dengan master plan perekonomian.Kata kunci: Sumber Daya Manusia; Kemiskinan; Pengangguran; Pendidikan; PembangunanJEL classifications: I25; O15
Revisiting Stock Market Integration Pre-Post Subprime Mortgage Crisis: Insight From BRIC Countries Chin-Hong Puah; Rayenda Khresna Brahmana; Kai-Hung Wong
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Volume 61, Number 2, August 2015
Publisher : Institute for Economic and Social Research

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (213.866 KB) | DOI: 10.47291/efi.v61i2.507

Abstract

AbstractThis study revisits the long-run relationships and short-run dynamic causal linkages among BRIC stock market, with the particular attention to the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. Extending related empirical studies, comparative analyses of pre-crisis, and post-crisis periods were conducted to comprehensively evaluate how stock market integration was affected by financial crises. In general, after employing cointegration test and VAR test, the results reveal the increase of stock market integration in BRICs after the subprime crisis. The evidence also found that China stock market is the most influential among the BRICs, in which China stock market has the ability to Granger cause the other three BRICs member countries. An important implication of our findings is that the degree of integration among countries tends to change over time, especially around periods marked by financial crises. AbstrakPenelitian ini mengkaji ulang hubungan jangka panjang dan hubungan kausal dinamis jangka pendek antara pasar modal negara-negara BRIC, terutama pada saat krisis subprime mortgage 2008. Pengayaan studi empiris yang terkait dan analisa perbandingan sebelum-sesudah krisis dilakukan untuk mengevaluasi secara komprehensif tentang bagaimana krisis keuangan memengaruhi integrasi pasar modal. Secara umum, setelah menggunakan uji kointegrasi dan uji VAR, hasil penelitian ini memperlihatkan peningkatan integrasi pasar modal di negara-negara BRIC setelah terjadinya krisis subprime. Penelitian ini juga membuktikan bahwa pasar modal Cina adalah pasar yang paling berpengaruh di antara negara BRIC, di mana pasar modal Cina memiliki kemampuan untuk memengaruhi secara Granger Causality tiga negara anggota BRIC lainnya. Implikasi penting dari temuan kami adalah bahwa tingkat integrasi antara negara-negara cenderung berubah dari waktu ke waktu, terutama sekitar periode yang ditandai oleh krisis keuangan.Kata kunci: Integrasi Pasar; Subprime Mortgage; Krisis Keuangan; BRICJEL classifications: F15; G15; G21; C32

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